President’s Message

Vision. You either have it or you don’t. Fortunately, and unfortunately, we have it.

Fortunately, because it’s nice to be right, and to help others if they’re willing to listen and act. Unfortunately, because as Cassandra learned, people generally don’t want to believe, or act on, potentially bad news.

The most significant correct prediction by Geopolitics Central in each of our major areas of expertise over the past two decades are as follows:

Global Geopolitics – New Cold War
Global Economics – Global Financial Crisis
Geopolitics of Energy – Implications of 2003 Iraq War
Global Energy Scenarios – Moderate crude price outlook
Crude Oil Price Forecasting – 1998-99 price crash
Energy Policy – Western Canadian oil pipeline pinch

And our worst miss:

Crude Oil Price Forecasting – Initial stage of 2002-08 bull market

I’ve been asked numerous times over the years, why I’m not richer with all this vision. To be blunt, I’m no different than anyone else once I’ve got significant skin in the game. When financially vested to an outcome, my vision becomes blurry as well.

I learned this the hard way, having worked as a private macro speculator for several years from the late 1980s to early 1990s, after making a tidy sum from the 1987 stock market crash.

If you want the straight goods from a consultancy with vision, we look forward to hearing from you. If you want a consultancy to tell you what you want to hear, and hold your hand as you go off a cliff, you may want to contact one of our competitors.

Thank you,
Vincent Lauerman