Geopolitics Central pioneered the three scenario approach to global energy scenarios with the January 2002 release of Energy Scenarios for the 21st Century, published by the Canadian Energy Research Institute. This approach, with the economy, geopolitics and the environment the key driver for each, has become commonplace, with organizations such as Royal Dutch Shell and Statoil having since used this approach in their scenario-based reports.

Energy Scenarios for the 21st Century received the following review in the Oxford Institute of Energy Studies’ Journal of Energy Literature:

“Lauerman has provided an extremely thought provoking look at our world in the next 25 years [and] Energy Scenarios for the 21st Century is an excellent primer for debate amongst planners.”

In a 2006 update, released in the heart of Peak Oil mania by the Institute for Sustainable Energy, Environment and Economy, Geopolitics Central maintained that moderate crude oil prices – US$40 to $60 per barrel in 2005 dollars – were sustainable in the three scenarios in the long term.

Geopolitics Central continues to use the three scenario approach we pioneered in our custom work, as we see no better way for looking at medium to long-term energy futures in a plausible and all-encompassing manner.


At Geopolitics Central we refuse to bore our readers and listeners. Our short, medium and long-term crude oil price outlooks are available only in slide format, with relatively short bullets making each point. The service includes quarterly or annual two-hour sessions (maximum) to expand on our insights.

Energy Policy

Geopolitics Central regularly writes on a wide range of energy policy-related topics impacting Canada and the US for a number of publications. Short, custom reports on these specific topics are available upon request.